a fun football tipping site staking plans and bankroll management

The winning’s from each event are rolled over to the next event. An example of varied stakes based on odds is the Secure Staking Plan which has ranges of odds and adjusts the stake as per your settings for that range. The bookiebashing variance model is a Monte Carlo Simulation that will analyse the expected returns of a strategy over a user defined number of simulations given ROI, odds and bankroll. DO NOT assign more money to that strategy than you can afford to comfortably lose in entirety. Kelly Staking was developed by John Kelly in 1956 to optimise the returns given that longer odds hold more expected value. Since by now you’ll know if your betting system is showing steady profits, you may use the kelly criterion to calculate your stakes.

It may be preferable to adjust staking as a bankroll changes this has the benefit of maximising returns as a bankroll grows, and also protects against the risk of ruin if a losing run is encountered. The above graphs consider Fixed Staking plans – the staking is fixed relative to the size of the starting bankroll and does not change. The stakes have been normalised in each of the graphs below so that 1000 unit stakes were placed in total under each betting history. Under Unit loss staking is a staking plan where we stake exactly the same unit for every bet, regardless of EV or odds. The three variables that affect when a punter may want to adjust a stake are bankroll, EV and odds size. We are in the most desirable position to figure out our long-term expectations and how to maximize our bankroll.

This level staking isn’t a bad way to trade especially for the beginner or novice punter. On betwade a standard 10 point level or unit system is used except for the bet of the month which can go to 20 points. It’s not a hero movie like on TV, it’s your life. You can’t justify after the event saying ‘oh well it happens to everyone’, it doesn’t and it just means you over staked and you’re an idiot. How much should I bet on a particular event? Check out The Staking Machine — the ultimate bankroll management tool for football betting. Use TSM to find your strategy so that you stay in the game long enough to benefit from your betting edge. A winning streak doesn’t guarantee success, and a short losing run doesn’t prove failure.

My advice is lock this money into your bank and never use it for Betfair trading, it is your safety net and will help you mentally if you have a bad day, knowing you won’t go hungry for a good while yet! Once that is safely banked away in savings then you can start thinking about the other money you wish to use. What is the ideal bankroll for becoming a Betfair Trading pro-trader? Set aside a separate amount of money you want to use for betting, which should be an amount that you can afford to lose. If you lose again, stakes rise further, compounding risk.

I won’t bother you with the same stuff and I will try to get directly into the point. However, if we don’t bet according to a staking plan and not having defined any bankroll for our system, we will be lucky not to end up bankrupt. Its like roulette players walking away after "locking in" a profit, if you think thats smart you shouldnt play in the first place, no staking plan will help you without an edge Targeting profits is stupid, the bigger your edge the bigger you should bet, dont have an edge dont bet. There is a maximum profit amount (not an Union Jackpots unlimited amount) that can be taken from any strategy on any event. The aim of looking only for 10 units per month is to make it very easy and achievable goal but it doesn't satisfy me as well this is why i made this thread to hear more and better plans using compounding Why not just target 200% per month instead of a paltry 10%?

For swing traders like me, it is commonly suggested to use between 2-5% of the bankroll to start with, if you are a good trader this will give you plenty enough of an increase each month to live off. Suppose you bet at 2.0 (even money) with £20 initial stakes and lose seven times before winning on the eighth bet. I consider myself quite a defensive trader and often only use 1-2% of my bankroll (or sometimes even less!) when trading in-play, as I lay at short odds generally this can be very profitable even still. If you do not trust yourself to trade out before the event starts then use a much lower amount 1-3% would be my suggestion. If you are a gambler who is trying to win long term, improve what you are doing and maybe supplement your income, I think it’s unwise to stake more than 20% of your bankroll (the money that you put aside for only betting) on any one selection). Value is investing your money in an investment strategy where the stocks (or bets you make on sports teams) are selected that trade for less than their intrinsic values (or what the odds are). I’ve read a few books from poker players and professional gambler and traders where it says everyone goes broke at least once, and it’s how you bounce back from these setbacks that makes you who you are etc….

A variation is the Fixed Staking Plan, where your stake changes depending on the odds so that each winning bet returns the same profit. I am not sure what the correct word or term is for that….I'm sure the financial trader peoples have a term for it… With many pro traders supporting each other every step of the way, it really is a great place to learn. I advise all traders old and new to paper trade and test things as much as possible. As I have said before I like to test my trading techniques/strategies out for at least 3 months before putting any serious money on them. I have a simple rule that has never let me down, if I lose half my bankroll I half my stakes. I would suggest a conservative approach to start with.

Percentage of Bank (Good)

Overall, Percentage of Bank is a conservative, disciplined approach to bankroll management. An alternative is to start with a level stake (e.g., £50) until the bank exceeds its starting balance, then switch to a percentage-of-bank rule. This helps manage risk and withstand losing runs, because stakes fall as the bank falls and rise as it grows. If you lose, the bank becomes £980 and the next stake is 2 % of that (£19.60). The Percentage-of-Bank plan stakes a fixed percentage of your current bankroll on each bet. Fundamentally, a profitable strategy needs a positive “+EV” edge. A level-risk approach means using a fixed stake or “unit” per bet.

A staking plan offers a more dynamic approach is the Whitaker Staking Plan which calculates your stake based on your assumed strike rate. Variable staking adjusts the stake depending on confidence and odds. For example, always staking £10 on each match, no matter the odds. This is mostly seen in Horse Racing and Coupons tracker results histories. We decided to slightly change the logarithmic nature of Kelly to optimise our staking when betting 10-15% of the field Each Way to win a single event.